The concept of a 16 team "super" Pacific Athletic Conference (Pac) seemed to be shelved by the end of 2010. The Pac-10 had become the Pac-12 (taking Colorado from the Big 12 and Utah from the Mountain West) and the Big Ten had grown to 12 members (without changing its name) by taking Nebraska from the Big 12. Under NCAA football rules, this allowed the Pac-12 and Big Ten to form two six team divisions and have a conference championship game at the end of the season, a source of additional revenue and national television exposure that both conferences had coveted. By a "gentleman's agreement" among its members, the tottering Big 12 had stabilized at 10 member schools. There the matter rested.

The illusion of BCS conference stability was shattered in September 2011, during the first week of the 2011 football season, by the Texas A&M announcement that the University was leaving the Big 12 in 2012 and joining the SEC. (Moving to the SEC makes a certain amount of geographical and historical sense for any Texas school, as Texas was a Confederate state in the Civil War.) Let's take a look at what is happening with the major college football conferences during the 2011-2012 football seasons.

Big 12

The 2012 departure of Texas A&M (aTm) to the SEC temporarily reduced the Big 12 to nine schools, again destabilizing the conference. (Their TV contract specifies a minimum of 10 members.) Following aTm's defection, Missouri applied to join the SEC and was also accepted. Oklahoma University announced that they were "considering alternatives," meaning departing the Big 12 for the Pac-12, accompanied by Oklahoma State, Texas and Texas Tech.

On 20 Sep 2011 the Pac-12 university presidents voted to stay at 12 member schools, quashing the Oklahoma/Texas schools attempt to join. Texas and its Longhorn TV Network were apparently a deal breaker, as the Pac-12 schools are committed to equal revenue sharing and refused to cut Texas a special exemption. (Texas always seems to demand special treatment, the underlying reason for the Big 12's woes.)

Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, Kansas, K-State and Iowa State would prefer the Conference to remain viable and they seem to have convinced Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to stay by means of a new, equal TV revenue sharing deal. (Except for the "third tier" Texas Longhorn Network!)

In early October 2011, the Conference invited TCU to join. TCU had committed to leave the Mountain West for the Big East in 2012, but with the Big East near collapse, TCU changed their mind and accepted the Big 12 invitation, starting with the 2012 football season. TCU is a much better fit with the Big 12 than with the Big East. In late October, the Conference invited West Virginia to replace Missouri and WV accepted, stating that they intended to play in the Big 12 for the 2012 season.

The addition of TCU (Big East) to replace aTm and West Virginia (Big East) to replace Missouri leaves the Big 12 at 10 teams for the 2012 season and beyond. There may be a delay before West Virginia can participate, however, as the Big East has a 27 month notice clause. WV is sueing the Big East to leave, so the matter will be decided in court if a compromise cannot be reached. West Virginia is, geographically, a poor fit for the Big 12 and the time zone and travel distance is going to create problems for the teams and their fans.

After the shake-up is over, the Big 12 will remain a 10 team conference. The members seem satisfied with 10 schools, but eventual expansion to 12 teams is also attractive. A proposal being discussed within the Big 12 would be to invite BYU (at present an independent) to join. Of course, that only works if BYU is willing to cast its lot with a conference with a somewhat uncertain future. Frankly, BYU would be a better fit with the Pac-12. Louisville (Big East) has also been mentioned as a potential future addition and the Air Force Academy (MWC) is another school reported to be under consideration for Big 12 membership.

Top to bottom, the Big 12 remains a powerful football conference for the 2012 season. Although lacking cohesion, it appears that the Big 12 will survive.

Big Ten

The Big Ten insists that they are not interested in expansion beyond their present 12 members and, frankly, they don't need to. They are one of the three elite "have" (as opposed to all of the other "have not") conferences. They are also highly respected academically; all but new member Nebraska are AAU members. However, if the Big 12 breaks apart, the Big Ten would be the logical home for some of the orphaned universities. Should the Big 12 collapse, I would like to see Iowa State (an AAU member), Kansas (an AAU member) and Kansas State admitted to the Big Ten. This is unlikely to happen anytime soon.

Pac-12

Since the Pac unsuccessfully attempted to recruit the Texas and Oklahoma schools in 2010 (before Texas cut their Longhorn Network deal with ESPN), only to reject them in 2011, it is difficult to predict what the Conference might do in the future. The ACC (14 schools and possibly seeking two more) and SEC (14 schools including aTm and Missouri) are expanding. Either or both may accumulate 16 teams before their expansion stops. The Pac-12 will likely consider expansion to at least 14, and possibly 16, members at some point in the future. ("PAC" would presumably then stand for "Premier Athletic Conference.")

Like most Pac-12 fans, I would prefer to see the Pac confine itself to schools located in the traditional 11 western states. If it is to expand beyond 12 schools, BYU (Independent) and Boise State (Mountain West Conference) are the foremost western football powers not already Pac-12 members. The Pac-12 has the clout to take both schools off the board. Their addition would make for a strong 14 team conference and I would like to see both in the Pac. Unfortunately, I have heard that the Pac-12 refuses to consider Boise State on academic grounds. (Pac universities are also expected to be academically elite; Stanford, Oregon, USC, UCLA, Cal, Colorado, Arizona, and Washington are all AAU members.) Air Force and Nevada (Reno) also merit consideration for future Pac membership. Financially and institutionally secure, the Pac-12 is another elite conference that can afford a "wait and see" attitude.

SEC

The South Eastern Conference has increased to 14 members by accepting Texas A&M and Missouri, both formerly Big 12 members. aTm and Missouri are both AAU members, which adds to the (questionable) academic credibility of the SEC. (Previously, Florida and Vanderbilt were the SEC's only AAU members.) Virginia Tech (ACC) has been rumored as a potential recruit, but the proposed 20 million dollar exit fee to leave the ACC seems to make that switch unlikely. Like the Big Ten and Pac-12, the SEC is an elite athletic conference in a position of power and they can do whatever they want.

ACC

The Atlantic Coast Conference seems to have won its struggle with the Big East to represent east coast football. There simply are not enough good teams in the northeast region to support two BCS automatic qualifier conferences (ACC and Big East). The South Eastern Conference is financially strong and populated by recognized national football powers. As such, it was never at risk, leaving the ACC and Big East to fight it out for the remaining eastern universities. The ACC, now with 14 member schools (Miami, Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Maryland, Wake Forest, North Carolina, NC State, Duke, Boston College, Syracuse and Pitt) destroyed what was left of the Big East's football credibility when they stole Pitt and Syracuse from their rival.

Speculation is that the ACC might become the first 16 member conference. Connecticut and Rutgers would like to bolt the Big East for the ACC. It merely remains for the ACC to decide if it wants them. Frankly, I cannot see that either university has much to offer in terms of national football prowess. Indeed, on the football field, the ACC would become weaker with the addition of these two schools.

Big East

The Big East is the weakest of the automatic qualifier (AQ) BCS football conferences and its future appears uncertain. (It has several non-football playing members and may remain viable as a basketball conference.) The recent departure of Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC and West Virginia to the Big 12 left the Big East with only five football playing members (Connecticut, Rutgers, South Florida, Louisville and Cincinnati).

TCU was scheduled to join the Big East in 2012, but decided to join the Big 12 instead, which makes a lot more sense for TCU. U-Conn and Rutgers have made it clear that they wish to depart the Big East for the ACC and Louisville is a potential candidate for future Big 12 membership. Thus, South Florida and Cincinnati seem to be the only solid Big East member schools and two members does not a football conference make.

Panicky Big East Conference officials attempted to recruit the service academies (Air Force, Navy and Army) in an attempt to retain their automatic qualifier BCS status. Army has said it prefers to remain independent, while Navy and Air Force have reservations about joining a tottering conference. In addition, travel would be a big problem for Air Force, which is located in the west (Colorado). Air Force belongs to the MWC, a stronger football conference than the Big East, although at present lacking an automatic BCS Bowl bid.

The Conference then sent a conditional invitation to Houston, SMU, Boise State and Air Force. The proposal was for Houston and SMU (both from C-USA) to become members in all sports, while Boise State and Air Force would become football only members. Air Force declined, but Boise State accepted the invitation. Travel and time issues will be a hardship for Boise State, although they should easily win the Big East championship and thus be an automatic qualifier for a BCS Bowl game in 2012 and 2013.

A separate invitation has been extended to Central Florida (also from C-USA) to become a new member in all sports. Central Florida is expected to accept, which makes geographical sense for them. East Carolina (C-USA) is seeking to join the Big East and has applied for membership; again, this makes geographical sense. Villanova (an FCS school!) has indicated that it would like to be considered for membership. Why any school would seek to join a notoriously weak conference that is on the ropes is a mystery to me.

At this writing, the Big East seems likely to lose its (always undeserved) automatic BCS Bowl Qualifier status after 2013. It would be best for everyone if the Big East were to fold as a football conference and concentrate its efforts on basketball.

Mountain West Conference and Conference USA

During 2010-2011, the MWC lost BYU, Utah and (for 2012) TCU, seriously eroding the strength of the conference. They gained Boise State for the 2011 season only and Nevada, Fresno State and Hawaii, all from the WAC, for the 2012 season. When the dust settles from the last round of transfers, the MWC for 2012 will presumably include Nevada, Fresno State, Hawaii, Colorado State, San Diego State, Wyoming, UNLV, Air Force and New Mexico. It remains the strongest of the non-automatic BCS qualifying conferences. The situation, however, remains fluid.

C-USA is likely to be affected by the current conference shake-up. For the 2011 season, C-USA includes Marshall, East Carolina, Southern Mississippi, UCF, Memphis, UAB, SMU, Houston, Tulsa, Tulane, Rice and UTEP. Some of these schools will probably be moving to other conferences in the next year or two. Houston, UCF and SMU have been invited to shore-up the Big East and East Carolina has petitioned the Big East for membership.

The MWC and C-USA have negotiated a football only alliance, ideally to include divisional championships and a tiered playoff format. There will be a dual conference championship game, possibly as early as the 2012 season and certainly for the 2013 season. The hope is to secure an automatic BCS Bowl bid for the winner. Certainly, the winner of the MWC/C-USA championship game would be more qualified for a BCS Bowl bid than any past Big East Conference champion has been.

Conclusion

As this is written in January 2012, the BCS landscape is still changing and it seems likely that more changes will occur in the future. The Pac-12, Big 10 and SEC remain stable, financially secure and powerful from top to bottom. They are the elite "Big Three" among football conferences. The ACC seems to have established itself as the alternative eastern conference, with a reasonably solid membership (unless the SEC comes calling). Every other conference is vulnerable to some extent. The BCS meets in 2012 to reevaluate automatic bowl qualifier status after 2013. Stay tuned for updates.